Morning Musume :: Gradaution Ceremony 2008

Posted under Hello Project, Morning Musume, Uncategorized by Aece McCloud

Good questions to bring up this week with the blog post. It has been a while since I blogged because I wanted to write something more interesting and needed time for it. Today I will go through the existing structure of Morning Musume and the possible elimination ceremony in 2008. As we all know Yoshizawa Hitomi has been decided to graduate from the group and Fujimoto Miki will be the next leader for the Morning Musume. This is ironic as she is still very young in the group compared to five other members of Morning Musume who are more experienced performing including Eri, Risa, Reina, Takahashi and Sayumi. One possible reason she would be the leader is Fujimoto looks more elder compared to other members and has developed a personality of a very humble woman and the decision is not related anywhere with the talent, level of fun but popularity. Tsunku must be planning some very good numbers while Fujimoto is still in the group as a leader. If he is not then placing Fujimoto on top was a mistake and he would have placed Takahashi Ai as the leader while he is taking more time for Fujimoto. Just to clear a few things Takahashi has more talent then Eri, Risa, Reina and Sayumi and she also produced some co-singles with Tsunku. Subordinating Fujimoto after Yossie’s graduation is not a big surprise for Takahashi.

Lets go through the strcuture of Morning Musume after graduation of Yoshizawa Hitomi from Morning Musume.

Yoshizawa Hitomi
________________

Fujimoto Miki (Leader)
Takahashi Ai (focused member after Fujimoto)
——————————————–

>>> Risa Niigaki <<<
– Tanaka Reina –
– Eri Kamei –
– Michishige Sayumi –
– Koharu Kusume –

As you can see we will be left with seven potential members of Morning Musume. I have placed Risa Niigaki on top as she is more talented and mature then other four members in the bottom. I have rated observing her past appearences, performances, interviews, popularity level and participation. This is Not the same Gaki-chan as we saw in ‘Mechaike Bakajo Kimatsu Test’. She has greatly improved and managed to change about 80% of her old personality to a very fun loving one. All other bottom members haven’t been able to improve themselves as much instead got influenced from Risa every now and then. However, she lacks leading skills and may not be suitable as a subordinate of Takahashi Ai in future which will get very tricky as it is becoming a very interesting game of who is more talented and who is to graduate also since the time is running out for all of them.

Koharu was a great addition in the group. In a very short time she has shown great talent and may be the next leading role model as a solo artist after Goto Maki. The same reason she is allowed to produce more singles to develop more fun and later more sexy figure and most probably be allowed to co-produce singles with Goto Maki; a very similar combination we saw with Aya Matsuura and Fujimoto Mikitty in GAM. Koharu Kusume is a tricky girl because the management and Tsunku wants her to surpass Risa, Tanaka, Eri and Sayumi which is bound to happen. The reason is Tsunku wishes to change the structure of Morning Musume as much as possible. The best winning method in keeping fans interested is to move around the structure of Morning Musume as much as possible. However, this requires fresh talent which needs to be matured and someone senior is needed to guide them. Nakazawa is getting very old in doing it and Abe Natsumi and Yaguchi Mari seems to be the only best backup members who can make that happen for Tsunku. Pretty sneaky for Tsunku to keep these members intact but they also have no other options so its a win-win game for both.

THE DECISION FOR YEAR 2008 GRADUATING MEMBER WOULD BE THE MOST DIFFICULT FOR TSUNKU.

Lets go through some proposed facts and assumptions that I made:

1. Koharu Kusume is set to exceed talents of Eri Kamei, Michishige Sayumi, Tanaka Reina and Risa Niigaki.
2. Most talented senior members ever produced by Morning Musume includes Nakazawa Yuuko, Yaguchi Mari and Abe Natsumi.
3. Decision for Yossie’s graduation was the easiest for Tsunku since he is buying more time before making critical decision for year 2008.
4. If Fujimoto is set to decide in year 2008 then it would be a BIG MISTAKE!!
5. According to my analysis for all seven potential members, Michishige Sayumi and Eri Kamei will be on the top of list to graduate either in year 2008 or 2009.

I have made three possible Group Sets that might exist after graduation in 2008.

Set 1 : Fujimoto, Takahashi, Reina, Risa, Koharu (In case Sayumi and Eri graduates)
Set 2 : Takahashi, Eri, Sayumi, Reina, Risa and Koharu (Mistake has been made)
Set 3 : Fujimoto, Takahashi, Reina, Risa, Koharu & Eri (Sayumi leaves, a very unusual decision)

Morning Musume strategy involves putting Group at a great Loss after graduation. That means if Fujimoto is not decided to graduate in year 2008 then two other members has to go. Either way it is a loss for Morning Musume on both accounts.

One fact missed by management of Hello Project and Tsunku is that the amount of talent existed after graduation of Abe Natsumi is the most ever achieved by the group and is not the same after graduation of Yoshizawa Hitomi. That means the talent is declining and they are not seemed to be very serious by recruiting Mitsui, JunJun and LinLin.

The talent in the group is degrading, members are graduating, time is running out to recruit new members, new members may not be able to reach heights of Takahashi Ai & Risa, and the groups seems to be in One Big Mess after 4 years. Something is needed to be done and it needs to be done now. There may have been some external force involved in recruiting JunJun and LinLin since the ties between Japan and China are getting stronger and becoming more friendly, but that doesn’t require jeopardizing the very existence of the group. If someone is reading this then do take time and decide for yourself if the strategy planned for the next few years will work or not.

If *Yes* then its fine; If *maybe* then back to the strategy board.